Devin Haney puts his WBC junior welterweight title on the line against former interim lightweight champ Ryan Garcia Saturday night at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
The fight between two of the brightest young stars in boxing has been largely anticipated. Haney (31-0, 15 KOs) is a master of the ring. His lack of power is superimposed by his ability to move, defend, and hit opponents while fighting off his front foot or back foot. His timing is impeccable.
Garcia (24-1, 20 KOs) has lightning speed in his hands, and his left hook carries the power to knock out any opponent. But his footwork could be a problem against a fighter like Haney.
Let’s look at the matchup and explain how the fight could play out.
The fighters
Haney’s reputation isn’t built solely on his skills but also on his strategic approach to the sport. From his skills seen within the ring to the unseen business and preparation behind closed doors without cameras.
Haney’s career trajectory aligns with Roy Jones Jr.’s post-Olympic path — refusing to sign with a significant promoter to bet on himself. Turning pro at 17 and competing against experienced rugged fighters in Mexico, Haney had no choice but to grow in his skill, mentality, and business literacy. His father, Bill Haney, has played a pivotal role in his development, aligning him with fighters like Floyd “Money” Mayweather so Devin could learn how to be and stay on top.
Bill has guided his son carefully without overshadowing him, a rare balance in the boxing world where many father-son dynamics quickly die out. Despite Bill’s long media rants and involvement, his vision has steered his son’s career flawlessly, and that’s why Devin is here at this stage today, a two-division champion and former undisputed lightweight champion.
Standing opposite Haney is Garcia, a fighter who has accomplished more outside the ring than in it. Garcia has something meaningful that Haney is after, and that’s his cultivating social following that transcends boxing, with over 10 million followers on Instagram alone. Many critics may question the loyalty of Garcia’s fanbase, but Garcia’s appeal lies in his persona, which carries the elusive “it” factor — a magnetism that can’t be manufactured. Suppose Haney can entice 10 percent of Garcia’s followers to purchase their PPV. That’s more than 1 million homes and a massive box office sale. Beating Garcia would boost Haney’s celebrity status and increase his finances and leverage at the table for future fights.
Strengths and weaknesses
Different levels of competition exist in sports, each requiring supreme skills and abilities. In football, for instance, high school teams have junior varsity and varsity divisions. The main differences lie in strength, size, speed and the game’s intensity or pace. Quick processing of information is necessary for athletes. In boxing, to enhance their IQ, fighters must master fundamental skills until those become second nature. Champions like Haney showcase the importance of skill development, strength, timing, positioning, and rhythm control during battle. Haney has gotten better with time, raising his overall game. He has an unmatched dedication to his craft and is loyal to the sport.
Meanwhile, Garcia’s development has been slow and damn near stagnant. Garcia’s fundamental skills training, as seen in camp videos with his trainer Derrick James, who will be working the corner of Garcia’s for the second time, should ideally have been instilled in Garcia before reaching the elite level of competition. Throwing the jab and stepping around to create a new angle is boxing 101. One would think Canelo Alvarez’s head trainer, Eddie Reynoso, and long-time trainer, Joe Goossen, who have trained Garcia in the past, would have polished Garcia in this regard.
The main distinction between Haney and Garcia is that one fully embodies boxing and is a technical and tactical master. The other takes part seemingly through his physical gifts in hand speed with power. However, Garcia shouldn’t be underestimated, and he commands respect with his lightning-fast, sweeping left hook, capable of knocking out opponents with a flush connection to the chin. Garcia’s hand speed can be deceptive, especially with his power, and the slightest misjudgment while slipping a punch can be costly for Haney.
On a positive note, Garcia has improved his jab, a key asset for facing Haney. A strong jab is essential to neutralize Haney’s effective jab, a key element of his offense. Derrick James will add a right cross to Garcia’s skills to counter Haney’s jab dominance. Garcia’s recent fight in December means he should be in good shape, rolling in another camp just four months later. As long as Garcia’s preparation was excellent and without injury, he should provide some resistance. Activity is crucial in all sports, and staying active could boost Garcia’s chances in this fight.
The matchup and how the fight may play out
Garcia’s footwork could be a concern against Devin Haney, who excels in this area. Boxers with poor footwork are susceptible to jabs and various counters. Haney has one of the best lead hands in boxing and can control a fight single-handedly with his jab. Garcia’s jab is more consistent now, but it still lacks understanding. Educated footwork is required to maintain range and proper distance, and Garcia is still learning this facet of his game. Garcia is more comfortable fighting moving forward than backward, and he will need to do a little of both against Haney, as Haney can switch from being hunted to being the hunter.
In previous fights, Garcia struggled to cut off the ring, crossing his feet and walking forward without a proper stance. Garcia even goes against boxing’s conventional wisdom, gathering his feet while moving forward back foot first, then stepping into midrange where he can be timed on his front foot. Haney will look to exploit when Garcia is out of positioning or not set to punch. Someone of Haney’s talent can read patterns, see mistakes in his opponent’s presentation, and make them pay.
Additionally, Garcia has yet to be comfortable handling feigned and direct pressure. Feigned pressure involves inducing mistakes by pressing forward while controlling range and not getting hurt, while direct pressure involves consistent attacks.
If Haney decides to push forward, Garcia might try to counter these tactics with a long guard (extended lead guard), similar to what Garcia used in his last fight against Oscar Duarte. The tactic will create some moments of distance control for Garcia, but Haney will likely be prepared and aware of this as film study is a massive part of Haney’s preparation. For a fighter to be exceptional, they must be able to adapt and be whatever they need to be in battle. They must know everything about their opponent — recognizing technical flaws, undeveloped skills, lack of tactics, plus defensive abilities.
Interestingly, both fighters are not known for inside fighting. Haney will likely clutch on the inside under pressure. In contrast, Garcia will use his abominable form of the Philly Shell, which he used against Duarte with no real success. In the Philly Shell the lead arm is positioned as if it were in a sling to shield the body with the back hand up. The lead shoulder is raised and turned inward to block incoming punches like jabs and crosses. The back remains high to defend against hooks to the head and body.
At midrange to inside, Haney is better than Garcia. Even from the outside, Haney is more efficiently landing punches on any target, especially against targets that come forward. If Garcia chooses to box off his back foot, Haney will quickly transition into the aggressor. If Garcia plots forward, looking to take the fight to Haney, the champ will create offense with his elusive footwork, taking advantage of any weaknesses in Garcia’s defense after his offense. Haney’s ability to move and set traps with lateral movements and quick directional changes will challenge Garcia and run him into potential shots.
If Garcia wants to better his chances of winning, he has to find a way to punch with Haney. Both fighters are speedy, but I believe Garcia is naturally faster, so punching with Haney before and after he punches can elevate his chances of catching or hurting Haney. Garcia is the bigger puncher by all accounts, but let’s not doubt Haney’s timing, strength and punch placement.
Key to the fight: Pressure
Before every fight on any level, a fighter feels the pressure of winning and the anticipation. It feels like you’re wearing a 10,000-pound weight vest. Pressure takes on various forms, from outside expectations fueled by fans, media and team members to the personal drive for victory. Training hard lightens the load while making sacrifices further eases it, too, and helps gain confidence. However, this amplifies during fight week. Most fights are won or lost one to two days before the match. The pressure of making weight weakens a fighter psychologically as he feels drawn out, weak and sometimes angry. These are the moments a fighter is at his weakest point, physically and more so mentally, filled with anxiety. Overcoming self doubt in boxing takes a strong and determined fighter to control this aspect before the fight. The pressure persists until the fight concludes.
Four weeks ago, there were doubts that this fight would happen when the New York State Athletic Commission asked Garcia to undergo a mental health evaluation ahead of the fight. However, on Tuesday, Garcia posted on X that he’s been “cleared from the commission to fight after the evaluation and drug test.” As he enters what may be the most important fight of his career, there is a lot of pressure on Garcia at the moment.
Prediction
It’s difficult to imagine picking Garcia to win this fight, given his recent focus, limited skills and abilities — and what could be seen as many distractions in the last few weeks. Haney outshines Garcia in every aspect of the sport. And while I give Garcia a 1% puncher’s chance, I predict Haney will win by a 12-round decision.
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