Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol is every bit as appealing as was Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford-Errol Spence. It’s one of the fights fight fans have been salivating over for a very long time.
There are certain fights in certain weight classes that you look at and think, “That’s the one that has to happen”, and wonder why they’re not made – but this is one that’s happening. There was a time, when Beterbiev was consistently fighting on Top Rank bills and Bivol was on Matchroom’s that this wouldn’t have happened, but Riyadh Season’s investment means a fight of the very highest level is here.
Fury-Usyk was a terrific fight, and there’s cause to hope this will be similar. But even if it doesn’t, the important thing is that it’s happening, and hopefully at the right time. There’s a chance it’d have been timed even better if it had been scheduled for 12 months earlier, but it’s still a great time for it to be happening – everyone agrees they’re the top two light heavyweights in the world. Some of the biggest fights of the modern era have happened, but happened years after they should have and been less appealing because of it – Crawford-Spence was one of those. Beterbiev-Bivol also has the clash of styles and the undisputed title-fight qualities offered by Fury-Usyk, which enhances its appeal.
One of my frustrations at super middleweight, where Saul “Canelo” Alvarez-David Benavidez still hasn’t happened, is that the wheels aren’t turning there like they should be. By Beterbiev-Bivol happening before it is well overdue, the careers of Joshua Buatsi, Ben Whittaker and other light heavyweights should receive the opportunities they’ve been fighting for and deserve. This is the pinnacle of an era – the end of a generational cycle – and almost as important is that the face of the 175lbs division could be set to change.
A fight like this – between two Russians – might be even more appealing if it was staged in Russia, or in a hotbed like Las Vegas, but we’ve seen this nature of event before, such as the Thrilla in Manila between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, and Mike Tyson-Buster Douglas in Tokyo, Japan. Does anybody every really reflect on the quiet atmosphere at Tyson-Douglas like it’s close to the main part of the story? The atmosphere took a backseat, behind the big fight actually happening and what unfolded. Beterbiev-Bivol being scheduled for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is nothing new.
Bivol is the fighter who’s closer to his peak. He’s a very good fighter. He’s got a terrific ability to control and understand range, and he knows not only how to make opponents pay for obstructing and misjudging range, but also how to force them to misjudge range – which really complements his in-and-out style. He’s not only excellent at making adjustments, but he’s also excellent at making opponents pay, and to the point that when they’re having to reach and out of position they no longer want to throw back.
If anything, Bivol’s mean streak is underrated. He punishes opponents harshly and puts them in his pocket. Canelo went the distance with him in 2022 but was in his pocket from the halfway point and stopped trying to win; Canelo fought Bivol the way Edgar Berlanga fought him in September, to go the distance without too often getting punished.
It won’t be enough for Bivol to be that same consistent fighter on Saturday. It won’t be enough to keep Beterbiev out of range – he’ll need to consistently hurt him. Even if he does that he won’t knock the winning mentality out of Beterbiev, who will keep trying to win the entire time – he will have to be sharp, and active, and reactive. But he understands that. Both fighters have a good understanding of what they need to do to win. It’s going to be a high-level fight.
Beterbiev’s power is dangerous beyond the level of any other active fighter. Pound for pound, he’s the biggest puncher in the world. Even if he is slightly past his peak, he believes in that power and will cut off the ring to try to put Bivol in a position where he makes a mistake and Beterbiev can land the big shot he wants.
His fundamentals are terrific, and he knows how to make opponents work much harder than him. The combination of his power and fundamentals stress his opponents, because they know they’re at risk of being hurt, so they become tired by moving more. When opponents do that he can cut down the ring without working as hard, which unlike a lot of other pressure fighters he knows how to do. He won’t overreach, either. Beterbiev has been like Gennady Golovkin – so intimidating that opponents haven’t wanted to fight him.
All of which is why their styles clash so well. Bivol can be the cat-and-mouse fighter who makes opponents chase him and pay for it – will he make Beterbiev pay enough that Beterbiev slows down, or will Beterbiev cut off the ring well enough that he catches him, makes him uncomfortable, and hurts him? The chances are we’ll see both, and therefore a great fight.
The winner of this fight will be remembered as producing his best ever performance on Saturday. I’ve changed my mind more than once about who will win, but as it nears it’s Bivol I’m leaning towards.
I of course wouldn’t be shocked if Beterbiev got the knockout, but it’s Bivol I see winning, via stoppage. It won’t be enough to outbox him; he will need to beat him up to keep him off.
Thanks very interesting blog!