Bradley’s take: How Dubois can prevent a possible Joshua-Fury megafight

Activity in boxing is key. Competition keeps the fighters ready, furthers their stamina and sharpens their skills as they put them to use. Activity improves offensive and defensive awareness and influences self-belief. For Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois, who meet Saturday in London for Dubois’ IBF heavyweight title, activity has been the difference maker in the climb back to the top.

Both Joshua and Dubois struggled with setbacks and had to overcome many hurdles. Joshua lost back-to-back fights against Oleksander Usyk but has won four consecutive fights since: three by stoppage, including a knockout-of-the-year performance against Francis Ngannou in March, and his fifth-round destruction of southpaw top contender Otto Wallin in December. Dubois suffered a heartbreaking loss to Usyk, but has recovered to score two impressive victories: an eighth-round TKO over undefeated No. 1 IBF contender Filip Hrgovic in June and a 10th-round TKO win against Jarrell Miller in December.

The greatest thing about these two contenders is their unmatched resilience, determination and self-preservation. Joshua and Dubois are former sparring partners, and their matchup now gets to happen when it matters. Tyson Fury and Joshua are arguably the two biggest names in the U.K. heavyweight landscape and could be lined up for a megafight. However, Dubois can change that narrative with a defeat over Joshua.

Let’s look at the Joshua-Dubois matchup — who has the advantage and how the fight could play out.

The matchup

I strongly feel that in facing Dubois, Joshua might be facing a version of his younger self, who had more bite than savvy. For Dubois, this is a fight against someone he has secretly idolized for years. This matchup creates a sense of mystique and builds anticipation.

Dubois has a muscular physique like Joshua. He has a similar punch arsenal, featuring a stiff jab, combination punching, a powerful right cross, vicious uppercuts and a developing lead left hook. In Joshua’s early career, he mainly relied on strength, size, heart, natural ability and combination punching to secure victories over fighters such as Wladimir Klitschko, even after Joshua was knocked down in the sixth round of that 2017 bout. Despite his limited championship experience at the time, Joshua dominated top contenders Joseph Parker, Alexander Povetkin, Dominic Breazeale, Charles Martin and Dillian Whyte. The evolution of Joshua into a more intelligent but still not textbook fighter highlights the importance of mastering fundamentals in boxing. He is now implementing step-around attacks, lateral traps, pull counters, slip counters, level changes and stab jabs to set up his assault.

Joshua’s loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. in June 2019 no longer casts a dark shadow over his career. At the time, it exposed his dependence on power and lack of fundamental skills, as Ruiz took advantage of holes in his technical game. Joshua redeemed himself in the rematch six months later by employing basic boxing principles: the jab, right hand and lateral movement, never standing in front of Ruiz for more than a few seconds — embodying the “hit and don’t get hit” philosophy.

Dubois, an athletically gifted 27-year-old, faced his first defeat against Joe Joyce in 2020, mainly due to Joyce’s effective use of the jab. Dubois struggles with fundamental defensive techniques such as proper parrying, slipping, head movement and transition defense. These are the things Joshua lacked amid his dominance years ago. Now, he is seasoned and has improved.

But Joshua and Dubois have distinct styles. Dubois is a younger version of Joshua — assertive, explosive, athletic and physically strong — yet still developing the most simple and practical principles of boxing 101. For example, Dubios has developed a reset pendulum bounce (rhythmic footwork transferring weight back and forth onto the front and back foot) after delivering his offense, which makes him vulnerable to being timed and countered. Rhythm bouncing is a valuable tool to heighten unpredictability and change the flow of a fight. But when done involuntarily close to your opposition, there is exposure as a fighter has to settle their feet before they punch.

On the other hand, Joshua seems better suited to understanding footwork and positioning, and he has designed defensive maneuvers that make him an improved version of his younger self. He’s now supported by the know-how and when-to teachings of trainer Ben Davison, a mastermind of strategic training drills and film study, maximizing Joshua’s growth.

How can Joshua win?

Joshua has become a wiser, more prolific hunter who sets traps for his opposition. Meanwhile, Dubois’ toughness and punching power seem to work both for him and against him, as he has collected 21 wins with 20 by knockout but has suffered two defeats, both via KO. During Dubois’ fight against Hrgovic, he struggled to defend a simple 1-2 combination (jab, backhand cross), mainly due to his lack of head movement and overall defensive deficiencies. To counter the 1-2 combination, Dubois can do different things, such as maintaining a solid defensive stance slightly outside mid-range, stepping back out of range to avoid the first punch and then rolling under the second. Attempting to evade both punches can be tricky and risky because misjudging the second punch after a successful parry of the first can lead to devastating consequences.

A notable example is Joshua’s first knockdown of Ngannou, where Ngannou tried to cross-parry (right on right parry from the open stance in a southpaw vs. orthodox battle) to deflect or reroute Joshua’s right cross with his lead right hand. However, Ngannou wrongly timed the right cross, being momentarily occupied by Joshua’s lead hand probe, leaving a free and clear line for Joshua’s crippling right cross. Joshua has mastered that 1-2 combination, and with his experience, he should be able to read Dubois’ tendencies and find a home for his right cross.

I’m sure Dubois’ team will strategize to move away from Joshua’s right cross (circling to Joshua’s left). However, Joshua has developed a 3-2 combination (left hook, right cross) that could surprise Dubois, as he depends on solely getting out of range with his footwork and catching punches as opposed to weaving and slipping punches. It’s not that he doesn’t attempt these maneuvers — it’s just not a substantial dimension in his game.

Dubois carries a flared guard with his elbows away from his body, leaving exposure underneath and around his defense. Joshua has a powerful uppercut at mid-range and inside that could find a place on Dubois’ chin because of his guard position. Pressure befuddles Dubois, lessening his offensive efficiency and creating fewer opportunities for him to get into a rhythm, which he depends on for his explosive offense. In other words, if you remove a pitcher’s wind-up, you deaden his forward momentum and limit his mechanics, which are necessary for effectiveness. For Joshua to win, he must possess a great jab, push Dubois onto his back foot, time his pendulum bouncing and set up his favorite combination, the 1-2, in different ways.

How can Dubois win?

The revamped Joshua isn’t bulletproof, but he puts forth an enhanced fighting database after training with top coaches such as Derrick James, who refined his jab and step-around technique. This involves stepping left or right to a new positional angle. Working with Robert Garcia, he learned to bend his knee to work effectively inside. His current trainer, Ben Davison, focuses on exploiting opponents’ weaknesses through technical and tactical fundamentals.

Although Joshua’s skills have improved, he exhibits a thoughtful, patient, deliberate approach that is viewed as economical, prioritizing quality punches over quantity. Robert Helenius, a last-minute replacement opponent, capitalized on Joshua’s measured manner by starting fast, dictating the tempo and pushing Joshua onto his back foot. Helenius also used a solid jab and implemented posturing with a forward shuffle to gain ground.

Dubois can succeed with different combination punches, especially if he targets high and low attacks. Joshua’s tendency to reach for jabs leaves him vulnerable on the right side for left hooks, which Dubois can exploit with his quickness, hand speed and power. Although Dubois may lack technical prowess, his youth, tenacity and pace can challenge Joshua. He should aim to control the center of the ring, using jabs and feints to disrupt Joshua’s rhythm and force him to reset often. Dubois should begin assertively yet controlled, testing Joshua’s defense and applying low-high combinations to affect his decision-making.

Who wins?

I imagine both fighters are motivated, having worked diligently to reach this point. They are determined to insert themselves into the history books and also to prove themselves again.

Joshua’s skill and confidence are at a career high. His elite experience and fight tolerance suggest a strategic assertiveness that should lead to an emphatic knockout victory over Dubois.