Industry Picks: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia

CANELO ALVAREZ wasn’t going to fight another Mexican, but Jaime Munguia’s rise to prominence has the 27-year-old ranked as the number one super-middleweight contender with the WBC and WBO.

When Munguia takes on the undisputed champion this Saturday (May 4) in Las Vegas during Cinco de Mayo weekend he does so having never tasted defeat in 43 fights. Crucially, however, the man from Tijuana has never faced an elite opponent like Canelo who, at 33, is tried and tested in marquee fights winning most and losing two to Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol.

All-Mexican clashes rarely disappoint but who will win? Boxing News contacted a number of figures within the industry to get their predictions.

1. Andy Lee (Trainer) – I think Munguia is young, fresh and a very game fighter. He’ll have to try to set a fast pace. Canelo does everything Munguia does but with better defensive skills. I think Canelo will win but I expect it to be a very good and entertaining fight.
2. Joe McNally (Trainer) – Canelo by KO/TKO between rounds eight and 11. I think the experience of Alvarez and his aggressive counter punching will be too much for Munguia late on. Munguia can be wild and predictable which suits Canelo, but his youth and freshness could work in his favour.
3. Duke McKenzie (Former three-weight world champion) – How much does Canelo have left? Will Munguia make him look old overnight? He’s in with a real chance because he’s game, heavy handed and undefeated but I see a Canelo win by unanimous decision.
4. Kevin Mitchell (Former lightweight contender) – I think it’s going to be an explosive fight, a shootout and it will depend on what Canelo has left. If he’s past his best Munguia will win on points.
5. Kal Yafai (Former WBA super-flyweight champion) – Canelo on points but if he’s aggressive late on I like him to force a stoppage.
6. Billy Nelson (Trainer) – I think Canelo is on the decline. He’s beginning to look a little older now. Munguia to out-work Canelo and win on points.
7. Chantelle Cameron (Former undisputed female super-lightweight champion) – I’m going with Canelo on points.
8. Gamal Yafai (Former European super-bantamweight champion) – Canelo on points.
9. Arnie Farnell (Trainer) – I’m going for Munguia. I think he’s too big, too young, and too fresh. He was massive on fight night when he boxed Jimmy Kelly [in 2022]. He put on 31lbs.
10. Johnny Nelson (Pundit) – Canelo by unanimous points win.
11. Jack Martin (Super-welterweight contender) – I think it will be a great contest. I’ll say Canelo on points.
12. Hannah Rankin (Former WBA Female super-welterweight champion) – I’m pretty conflicted on this one because Munguia has been flying lately. However, I’m going to go with Canelo on points. I think his experience and the Mexican rivalry is going to drive him even more to win.
13. Jordan Flynn (Lightweight contender) – I think it will be a very good fight. I see a Canelo points win in a good back and forth fight.
14. Dave Coldwell (Trainer) – Munguia is heavy handed enough to make Canelo think but does leave a lot of counters for Canelo to catch and counter and rip in those body shots. I think Canelo grinds him down after Munguia gives everything and empties his tank.
15. Mark Neilson (Promoter) – I expect Munguia to start fast and be up in the first few rounds, but Canelo will eventually start getting to him and wear him down. I go for a Canelo stoppage in the later rounds.
16. Gavin Gwynne (Former EBU lightweight champion) – This is a proper 50-50 fight. A young, hungry fighter against one of the greats. It’s going to be back and forth, but I see Canelo getting a points win in a hard fought battle.
17. Jamie Conlan (Promoter) – Canelo is playing the back nine of his career now. He’s not pulling the trigger like he used to. Munguia is a live dog but he’s reckless with his shot selection and will leave openings. A big Mexican shoot-out would be perfect for boxing, but I think we will get a Canelo points win.
18. Callum Smith (Former WBA super-middleweight champion) – I think Munguia’s youth and work-rate could cause Canelo problems. But I also think he makes too many mistakes and Canelo will make him pay. Canelo on points.
19. Wayne Alexander (Former EBU super-welterweight champion) – Canelo’s a future hall-of-famer but I think he could be on the slide. Munguia has looked good lately. He’s younger, fresher and could beat Canelo but I think Canelo’s still got enough to win on points in a hard-fought contest.
20. Nina Hughes (WBA Female bantamweight champion) – I think Canelo wins on points. He’ll be too clever for Munguia and has boxed at a much higher level.
21. Richard Farnan (Trainer/Cutman) – Never write Canelo off against a fellow Mexican. Munguia has looked much improved under Freddie Roach. I think it will be a slow start by Canelo but in the later rounds he’ll start to break Munguia down and may stop him.
22. Tony Jeffries (2008 Olympic Bronze Medallist) – On paper this is one of the most exciting fights out there, but I can’t see Munguia beating Canelo. I think Canelo is pound-for-pound the best all-round fighter on the planet.
23. Matthew Hatton (Trainer) – A brilliant fight. The one I’m looking forward to the most. Is it a passing of the torch or does Canelo still have enough left? He’ll want to show he’s still the main man. I think Canelo will still be just a little bit too good.
24. Tony Sims (Trainer) – Munguia has youth on his side. He’s big at the weight and is smarter in his ring generalship than he looks and he’s also very heavy handed. Canelo is a master at reading your next move and pressuring you to counter, but he’s also very heavy handed. I see a really tough fight but I’m slightly leaning towards Canelo although I wouldn’t be surprised if Munguia wins a split decision.
25. Junaid Bostan (Super-welterweight contender) – It’s a great fight. Youth vs. experience. I’d have to go with a Canelo win but a great fight to watch.
26. Caoimhin Agyarko (Super-welterweight contender) – I think Canelo wins by decision. His experience and explosiveness will be too much for Munguia.
27. Leigh Wood (Former WBA featherweight champion) – Canelo to win in round nine.
28. Sam Noakes (British and European lightweight champion) – Canelo wins by stoppage.
29. Mark Jeffers (English super-middleweight champion) – Munguia by knockout between rounds eight and 10.
30. Maisey Rose Courtney (Female flyweight prospect) – If you go on their performances against John Ryder, you’d favour Munguia. It’s a tough fight to call. Canelo is in the back end of his career, but he could knock him out or Munguia’s youth could carry him through to a decision win.
31. Harry Scarff (British welterweight champion) – An interesting fight, a good one as well. I’ve never been overly impressed with Munguia, but he does everything well. It’s hard to go against Canelo so I pick him to win a unanimous points win.
32. Jay Harris (British and European flyweight champion) – Canelo but it will be a tough, hard fight.
33. Stephen Smith (Trainer) – I think Munguia will bring lots of energy but feel Canelo will walk him onto shots and probably look good doing so. Canelo to win between rounds nine and 12.
34. James Beech Jr (Featherweight contender) – Canelo on points after a close fight.
35. Robbie Davies Jr (Super-lightweight contender) – With Canelo being better defensively I think he’ll pull away in the second half of the fight and win on points.
36. Charlie Edwards (Bantamweight contender) – I’m going to go with a Canelo win on points. I think Munguia will cause a problem early on, but Canelo will ride the wave and experience will pay off.
37. Mark Dunlop (Promoter/Manager) – I think Canelo will be too strong and busy for Munguia and get to him in the later rounds and force a stoppage around round 10 or 11.
38. Eddie Lam (Trainer) – I think Canelo might know a bit too much for Munguia’s high-energy, non-stop style and have enough left to stop him in the late rounds or win a unanimous points decision.
39. Darren Barker (Pundit) – I feel that the torch isn’t quite ready to be passed to Munguia. I think Canelo will get his arm raised at the end in a close 12-round battle.
40. Chris Billam-Smith (WBO cruiserweight champion) – Canelo by late stoppage.
41. Maxi Hughes (Lightweight contender) – I’m picking Canelo because of his experience. He’s been involved in bigger fights against the better opposition and come through.
42. Liam Davies (Former European super-bantamweight champion) – There is a good chance Munguia can win being younger, hungrier, and undefeated in 43 fights. Munguia to win on points.
43. Mason Cartwright (Super-welterweight contender) – I think it will be a hard drawn-out fight with Munguia pressing but Canelo’s speed/timing and skill will take over and he’ll win a wide points victory.
44. Paul Butler (Former IBF bantamweight champion) – Munguia won’t shy away from the challenge, but I think the class and shot selection from Canelo will be too good for him. If it’s not a wide points decision win I think Canelo could stop him late on.
45. Sean Noakes (Welterweight prospect) – This is a real tough one. I’d have to say Canelo on points but it’s a close one.
46. Jordan Gill (Super-featherweight contender) – I can see Canelo making Munguia work hard early, chipping away with a few sharp accurate shots, then taking over in the second half. Canelo stoppage between rounds 9-12.
47. Joe Hughes (Former EBU super-lightweight champion) – I think Canelo wins closely on points in a tough fight. He’s not what he once was, and I think Munguia is on the way up but not quite there yet.
48. Jon Pegg (Trainer/Promoter) – I think Canelo is going to take a controversial win.
49. Paddy Donovan (Welterweight contender) – I believe Canelo stops him within five rounds.
50. Conor Quinn (Flyweight prospect) – I’m going for Canelo on points. Munguia is a great fighter, but I think Canelo is just a step too far at this moment and time.
51. Shakan Pitters (Light-heavyweight contender) – That’s a good fight. I’ll stick with Canelo on that one.
52. Chris Bourke (Bantamweight contender) – Canelo to win by a late stoppage.
53. Jack Flatley (Super-welterweight contender) – I fancy Munguia to win with his youth and I believe Canelo is on the decline a little.
54. Raven Chapman (Female featherweight contender) – Got to go with Canelo. Both are tough Mexicans so I’m saying it will go to points. It would be interesting to see if Munguia can get on the front foot against Canelo, though.

Result: Canelo 47 votes, Munguia six votes, one undecided vote.

And for even more industry predictions collected by BN click the video below.