Terence Crawford will move up to the 154 lb division on Saturday, challenging Israil Madrimov for the latter’s WBA super welterweight title in a 12-round main event on pay-per-view.
Can Crawford (40-0, 31 KO) become a four-division titlist, or will Madrimov (10-0-1, 7 KO) hold “Bud” off from further glory?
We’ve got our picks in.
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Who wins Crawford vs Madrimov?
Scott Christ (31-9)
Every fighter who flies up the weight classes over their career eventually finds a weight that’s a problem. Manny Pacquiao fought once over 147 lbs and though he won, he knew for a fact he was fighting too heavy. Floyd Mayweather capped at 154 for a reason, and against very specific opponents. Oscar De La Hoya went to 160 and had a world of trouble with Felix Sturm and found a world of hurt against Bernard Hopkins. Nonito Donaire hit the wall at 126. Currently, we’ve seen Canelo Alvarez absolutely not be the “same guy” at 175 that he’s been at 154-168. These are all no doubt Hall of Fame fighters.
Crawford started his career at 135. He won a world title there, then went undisputed at both 140 and 147. He’s had no close calls along the way. He has been genuinely dominant. Madrimov is a good fighter, and one with a skill set that can be a problem for anyone. He’s not a cherry picked, easy choice. Outside of Sebastian Fundora being 7-foot-13 and weird to fight, Madrimov may be the toughest matchup possible in the current 154 field.
I think Madrimov will be in this for about half the fight, even look like he has the potential to pull it out, but Crawford’s greater depth of ability will see him through and he’ll wear the Uzbek down in the second half. I do think this goes to the cards; Bud’s mean streak will be intact, and he’ll want the stoppage, but we’ll have to see what his power is like at this weight. He might well get it, but I’ll say he wins a solid and clear decision to start his campaign as a super welterweight. Crawford UD-12
Wil Esco (24-16)
There are many who believe Madrimov will present a much sterner test than is generally expected against Crawford, but special fighters are special for a reason. So while I don’t know that Crawford’s power will be exceptionally great at 154 lbs, I do know that he’s stronger than he often gets credit for and his technique is sharp enough to even keep junior middleweights honest.
Therefore while Madrimov will be a tough and durable opponent, I do think this is another situation where Crawford will find the keys to victory after the first few rounds where his adaptability will allow for him to have increasing success the longer the fight goes on. All in all, I think Crawford’s mean streak continues here as he finds a late round stoppage. Crawford TKO-10
John Hansen (26-14)
Madrimov is a worthy belt holder, and a viable matchup for any of the best at 154. But Crawford is otherworldly. I can’t picture him losing this fight, or any other in his neighborhood, unless age suddenly catches up to him, or maybe if he takes the big jump up to 168 for a Canelo superfight. Crawford TKO-10
Patrick Stumberg (27-13)
Terence Crawford is going to look bad for a while. Madrimov is a rough introduction to the super welterweight ranks at the best of times, boasting thudding power, an eccentric style, and division-atypical mobility that nullifies the traditional agility advantage fighters enjoy when moving up in weight. Between Crawford’s age, inactivity, and occasional tendency to lose early rounds even against fighters he outclasses, he’ll find himself in a deep hole before long.
Thing is, Crawford has made a career of climbing out of those holes. He’s incredibly adaptive and, more tellingly, incredibly consistent. Compare that to Madrimov, who’s as likely to disappoint (Emmany Kalombo) as he is to enthrall (Magomed Kurbanov). Crawford can right himself if the wheels start to fall off, but for all of Madrimov’s genuine skill, I can’t say the same about him.
To be clear, this is doable for Madrimov, but it would take everything going right for him and everything going wrong for Crawford. Even at this stage of Crawford’s storied career, that’s not a bet I’m willing to make. Crawford stumbles off the block before seizing the reins and forcing a late finish while down on at least one card. Crawford TKO-11
Quick Picks!
Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz vs Jose Valenzuela, Andy Ruiz Jr vs Jarrell Miller, Jared Anderson vs Martin Bakole, David Morrell Jr vs Radivoje “Hot Rod” Kaladjzic
Note: We don’t have an official note on whether Ruiz-Miller and Anderson-Bakole are 10 or 12 round fights.
- Scott: Cruz TKO-6, Ruiz TKO-9, Anderson UD, Morrell TKO-5
- Wil: Cruz TKO-5, Ruiz TKO-8, Anderson UD, Morrell TKO-7
- John: Cruz UD-12, Miller KO-5, Bakole SD, Morrell TKO-7
- Patrick: Cruz TKO-8, Ruiz UD, Anderson UD, Morrell KO-3